Global Economic Prospects 2011

WORLD BANK: The world economy is moving from a post-crisis bounce-back phase of recovery to slower but still solid growth this year and next — with developing countries contributing almost half of global growth, says the World Bank’s (WB) latest Global Economic Prospects (GEP) 2011.

GEP 2011 stated that the WB estimates that global GDP, which expanded by 3.9% in 2010, will slow to 3.3% in 2011, before it reaches 3.6% in 2012. Developing countries are expected to grow 7% in 2010, 6% in 2011 and 6.1% in 2012. They will continue to outstrip growth in high-income countries, which is projected at 2.8% in 2010, 2.4% in 2011 and 2.7% in 2012.

In most developing countries, GDP has regained levels that would have prevailed had there been no boom-bust cycle. While steady growth is projected through 2012, the recovery in several economies in emerging Europe and Central Asia and in some high-income countries is tentative. Without corrective domestic policies, high household debt and unemployment, and weak housing and banking sectors are likely to mute the recovery.

“On the upside, strong developing-country domestic demand growth is leading the world economy, yet persistent financial sector problems in some high-income countries are still a threat to growth and require urgent policy actions,” said Justin Yifu Lin, the WB’s chief economist and senior vice president for development economics.

According to the report, current relatively high food prices are having a mixed impact. In many economies, dollar depreciation, improved local conditions, and rising prices for goods and services means that the real price of food has not risen as much as the US dollar price of internationally traded food commodities.